By 2037, I believe artificial intelligence will be a billion times more intelligent than us at every task we give it. Ray Kurzweil says 2049. The exact year doesn’t matter.
What matters is the moment it becomes twice as smart as we are, because past that point we lose any ability to outthink it. By my estimate, that moment is about twelve months away.
This isn’t fear mongering, it’s math. Chess, Go, protein folding, driving: every task we’ve handed machines, they’ve mastered faster than us, because they learn from each other instantly, not one at a time like we do.
So use this year well. Decide what you want intelligence to serve, because once this window closes, you won’t be the one choosing anymore.
Originally recorded live at Gladiator Summit II.